Vision 2024: Insights for the New Year with Divam Sharma

1. Which major trends guided the markets in 2023?

In 2023, several major trends shaped the financial markets. 

Global markets were subdued with interest rate hikes, and deflation.

• The Federal Reserve (FED) responded to soaring inflation with 11 increased interest rate cycles trying to control inflation. US Bond yields reached 5%, creating a lucrative debt market. Inflation fluctuated throughout the year, but November brought some relief as inflation was reported within the Fed’s 2% target band. Now we’re anticipating fed rate cuts going into the next year. 
• The Israel-Hamas war triggered geopolitical tensions, causing Brent Crude to surpass the $95 mark. The IT sector faced challenges with bleak guidance and significant layoffs, impacting stock performance. 

On the other hand, Indian markets did very well despite the negative global cues. 

• China’s deflation and the Fed’s interest rate hikes led to India’s GDP growth surpassing expectations in Q2, contributing to a market rally. The markets experienced an IPO rush, particularly in the SME category. Both stock markets and gold reached all-time highs during the year. Support from Domestic Institutional Investors remained robust even when the FIIs were selling. 
• This year, India hosted the G20 Summit, leading to historical deals such as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor.
• In November, state elections played a role in influencing market sentiment. BJP winning elections in 3 out of the 4 states directs political stability in the country.

The year was marked by a dynamic interplay of global economic forces, geopolitical events, and domestic factors, collectively shaping the trajectory of financial markets in 2023. However, despite the hikes, escalated geopolitical tensions, and anticipated recession in the West, NIFTY is close to reaching an all-time high of 22000 points.

2. Which major trends are you expecting in 2024?

I am looking forward to seeing how the election euphoria plays out next year, for both the Indian and US elections. We saw a bit of euphoria recently after state elections too and the response is going to be much more amplified in 2024. Since elections are coming up, the interim budget is going to be interesting too. The govt. may look at allocating more funds to infra, and rural development this year. 

Interest rates have been of great significance this year but looking forward, the expectations, or rumours I’d say are that the Fed is going to cut the interest rates. That combined with Japan’s negative interest rates is something global equity markets are closely following.

Globally speaking, geopolitical tensions are of great concern. The Israel-Palestine conflict is not easing, Houthis too have gotten involved in it now. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is of great concern too. These two conflicts may have not impacted the markets very much this year, but they might if they escalate, moreover, these humanitarian conflicts are concerning and scary for everyone as global citizens. 

Looking at Indian markets, we’re expecting the IPO boom to continue. This year has seen hundreds of IPOs and investors, particularly retail investors are still excited about them. SMEs have been in focus and they will continue to be, India is the place for growing companies right now and we’re anticipating more private capex. I’m expecting to see more FII inflows in the coming year with projections of US interest rate cuts. Earlier this year, FIIs turned net sellers but in the last few weeks, they’ve started buying again and we’re expecting that to continue. 

One thing that could disrupt all projections and expectations, however, is the return of Covid as some cases have come up recently. 

3. Which new sectors or themes will you be watching out for in 2024?

We’re following telecom infra very closely. 5G is a space we’re quite optimistic about because India is currently behind other countries when it comes to 5G, so telecom and related proxy sectors seem to have good scope for development. 

Then, there’s pharma. We have been sticking with pharma’s growth potential this year and continue to have faith in the sector. Pharma has not seen a good time this year due to challenges from the US, but those are easing now and 2024 could be the year for pharma. 

The same goes for Specialty chemicals. It’s been the underperforming sector for a couple of years but we are expecting a turnaround very soon. 

ESG too is a theme we’ve always been bullish on. Awareness around ESG is rising and we have also relaunched our ESG smallcase year. We all know that this theme is very relevant not only in 2024 but beyond that too.

4. How should investors go about setting financial resolutions or goals?

One thing that I always insist on is being financially healthy and the first step towards that is to educate yourself. There are plenty of resources available out there for anyone to educate themselves and it’s important to understand your investment objectives. My take for beginner investors would be to educate themselves, lay out their financial goals, and then go about investing. 

For regular investors, I’d say one should refrain from investing in huge lump sums right now because the markets are a bit shaky. Since interest rates are high, investors should also look at their leverages and reduce them. That said, one should surely buy on dips, set SIP goals, and definitely continue with existing SIPs. 

Now, finance is more than just equity and investments, it’s more about caution and preparing oneself for the future and that’s why investing in health insurance and term insurance should be the top priority for all individuals, including those who don’t invest. 

5. Your Personal Goals for 2024

In 2024, with the joyous arrival of my first child, a baby girl, my financial goals are imbued with a deep sense of responsibility and commitment to her future:

1. Create a Portfolio for My Daughter’s Financial Independence: As a new parent, one of my primary goals is to establish a thoughtful and comprehensive investment portfolio tailored specifically for my daughter’s financial independence. This involves researching and selecting a mix of secure and growth-oriented investments that can provide her with a solid financial foundation as she embarks on her journey through life. From education to career pursuits, this portfolio aims to be a reliable resource, ensuring that she has the support she needs to pursue her dreams with confidence.

2. Travel: I plan to allocate resources for travel experiences to enrich life, create lasting memories, and broaden perspectives. Whether it’s exploring new destinations or revisiting favorite places, prioritizing travel contributes to a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.

3. Focus on Health: A significant portion of my financial goals for 2024 involve investing in health. This includes budgeting for activities that promote a healthy lifestyle for our family, regular health check-ups, and nutritional choices that contribute to overall well-being.

6. Your Professional Goals for 2024

Green Portfolio has performed splendidly well this year as we completed five years of the company. Looking forward, we are set to achieve bigger milestones. The first thing is to maintain our outperforming returns and keep adding value for our investors as we currently sit on a comfortable value cushion. One thing that’s really important to me, and Green Portfolio as a company is educating investors and helping them build investing discipline by handholding them in the beginning to providing all sorts of assistance they may need with their investments.We want to create a financial well-being roadmap for over 100k investors of Green Portfolio.

Another important thing we’re trying is getting an AIF license. The work for it is already in progress and hopefully, that’ll be one of the first big things that we see next year. 

Green Portfolio – 2023 Wrapped with Divam Sharma

Welcome to Green Portfolio’s 2023 wrap-up with Divam Sharma. In this yearly wrap, we are discussing Green Portfolio’s important moments and milestones of the year. 

This Friday at 5 PM, our CEO and founder, Mr. Divam Sharma will discuss:

– Green Portfolio’s 2023 in a nutshell

– Major trends that guided markets in 2023 

– Trends to look forward to in 2024

Set your notifications and join the live here.

Liked this story and want to continue receiving interesting content? Watchlist Green Portfolio’s smallcases to receive exclusive and curated stories!

Green Portfolio is a SEBI Registered (SEBI Registration No. INH100008513) Research Analyst Firm. The research and reports express our opinions which we have based upon generally available public information, field research, inferences and deductions through are due diligence and analytical process. To the best our ability and belief, all information contained here is accurate and reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable. We make no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results obtained from its use.